The war has dampened childbearing intentions across Europe Hungary Sees More Marriages, with Births Expected to Rise
Over the past 15 years, Hungary’s family-friendly policy framework has steered childbearing intentions in a favourable direction despite the low number of women of reproductive age, and the number of births had been on an improving trajectory until the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The war, however, generated uncertainty across Europe, which also moderated fertility intentions in Hungary. According to the latest data, the number of marriages in Hungary is rising, and an increase in births is expected in the coming period.
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the number of births has declined in every European country. In Hungary, preliminary data indicate that 72,000 children were born in 2025, 7.1% fewer than in 2024, while the decrease per 1,000 women of reproductive age (15–49) was smaller, at 5.2%. In the V4 and Baltic countries, which are geographically closer to the war, national statistical offices recorded larger declines of around 9%. The reduction in births in Hungary has been roughly half as large as in other Eastern European countries located close to the conflict, such as Romania, where the decline reached 20%, and Latvia, where it was 19% since the outbreak of the war.
The proximity of the war and the possibility of escalation strongly influence fertility intentions, but in Hungary another important factor must also be considered: the sharp decline in the number of women of childbearing age. Never before in Hungary’s history has the population of women of reproductive age been as low as it is today. This has a powerful effect on the number of births, since far fewer women would have to bear far more children in order to produce an overall increase in newborns. Even in 2025, despite the decline, Hungary’s birth figures remained more favourable than those of other countries in the region, and this is not driven by childbearing among immigrant-background women. There is reason for cautious optimism: alongside expanded family support measures, more marriages were contracted and more pregnancies were registered in 2025 than a year earlier, pointing to a potential turning point in birth trends in 2026.
The decline in births observed across European Union countries has occurred despite the fact that today one in four newborns in the EU has a mother of immigrant background. External migration does not influence the number of births in Hungary. While Hungary experiences no migration effect, its total fertility rate (1.31 in 2025) is higher than that of the native female populations of many other countries, where the figure is only 1.0–1.2 children per woman (the estimated EU average for 2025 is 1.27), whereas among foreign-born immigrant mothers fertility rates exceed 2. Hungary’s fertility rate surpasses the childbearing indicators of the other V4 countries and the Baltic member states.
For historical reasons (the Ratkó era and the Bokros package), the size of the cohort in childbearing age in Hungary has fluctuated markedly. In the two decades following the political transition, the number of women of reproductive age hovered around 2.5 million, and as recently as 2010 there were still 2.38 million; today that figure has fallen to 2.07 million. Over a decade and a half, the population of women aged 15–49 has therefore declined by 13%. In the 20–39 age group — which accounts for 90% of births — the contraction has been even steeper: their number has fallen by 344,000, a 24% decrease. Had the number of women of childbearing age remained unchanged, an additional 212,000 children could have been born between 2011 and 2024 alongside the improving fertility behaviour observed during those years.
The decline in births was therefore partly foreseeable. Despite these structural constraints, current indicators point in a positive direction, suggesting that the number of newborns may begin to rise again in 2026. New and expanded family support measures — including the family tax reduction programme and housing support schemes such as CSOK Plus and the Home Start Programme — are encouraging more couples to choose parenthood. This optimism is reinforced by the fact that more pregnancies were registered last year than the year before, the number of pregnancy-confirming ultrasound examinations increased, and in the final third of 2025 the number of marriages rose by 13.4%. This matters because more children are born within marriage; therefore marriage is a key step toward family formation. Taken together, these developments point toward a turning point in birth trends in 2026.
Given the demographic processes affecting all of Europe, including Hungary, it remains essential to continue prioritising support for families raising children, improving their financial circumstances, and expanding their opportunities.
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